Future of Flash in GIS

Fuzzy, the blogger with the not-Flash banner animation, writes:

Every time I hear about devs (some of my co-workers included) choosing the Flex API for AGS I have to bite my lip. With the life span of web mapping sites they’re probably more than safe going with Flash – it’s slide will likely be long and slow. But I think that slide is becoming inevitable.

Last week I commented that one upside of the Apple-Adobe Flash brouhaha was that it reduces all the necessarily complicated, technical, wonky arguments against Flash (which clients know, somehow, that they "need") to: "it won't work on your iPad". But I'm resisting because I'm almost certain that Apple will eventually win this game of chicken, extract whatever concessions or guarantees or fees or pounds of flesh from Adobe, and relent. I'd like to be wrong.